Kairana By-Election: A Test for Ruling BJP

Kairana Lok Sabha by-poll has registered merely 54 per cent polling which is causing alarm in the rank and files of ruling BJP. Will Mriganka Singh, the daughter of BJP stalwart late Hukum singh be able to save its forte is a question gaining ground amongst the poll pundits.

In the year 2014, BJP, waves in whole country had swept Kairana too and Hukum Singh mustered more than three lakhs votes agains his nearest rival. But the euporia is missing this time. It is evident from the fact that the seat has polled 14 per cent less votes. It suggests, the dedication of BJP voters has vanished to an unexpected level and they can be seen as indifferent to the ‘jumlebaazi’ of BJP’s top brasses.

The another factor is the foolproof polarization of all the opposition parties and the communities against the BJP candidate. In the area where castes and communities play a major role in such elections, the BJP candidate seems to be on a receiving end. Last time, the Muslim votes were divided amongst the equally formidable candidates of different parties, but this time voters of this community has no other choice than the widow of late MP Munnavar Hasan. Ms Tabbasum Hasan is also a looked as a clean candidate in this sensitive constituency.

In last election, there was a clear polarization of BJP votes in favour of late Hukum Singh, due to recent Muzaffarnagar riots too, and he raised an issue of exodus of Hindu families from Kairana, fearing highhandedness of Muslim fanatics. That issue stands no more now.

General and non-committed voters now fear that BJP is behind all recent ills– daily increase of petrol and diesel prices, spiralling costs of essential commodities and the uncontrollable law and order situations in Kairana.

Despite last moment rally of PM Narendra Modi, BJP has all worries to retain the seat. If it goes the Gorakhpur and Phoolpur way, after Karnataka fiasco, it will be like an alarm bell for the party for 2019 general elections.